The Heat Index: Crime and Seasons in New York City

How NYC's 2022 crime data reveals a pattern criminologists have studied for two centuries.

The table below presents NYPD's citywide crime statistics for each month of 2022 across all seven major crime categories.

NYC major crime categories by month (2022)

Month	Murder Murder: the willful killing of one human being by another.	Rape Rape: penetration, no matter how slight, without the consent of the victim.	Robbery Robbery: taking or attempting to take property from a person by force, threat, or violence.	Felony Assault	Burglary	Grand Larceny	Grand Larceny Auto	Total
January	28	128	1,251	1,736	1,189	4,047	1,187	9,566
February	36	140	1,290	1,725	1,224	3,815	1,074	9,304
March	32	134	1,267	1,992	1,326	4,078	1,044	9,873
April	31	109	1,261	2,044	1,209	3,867	942	9,463
May	48	157	1,520	2,384	1,278	4,183	1,033	10,603
June	26	140	1,548	2,471	1,279	4,467	1,142	11,073
July	51	150	1,752	2,631	1,360	4,634	1,260	11,838
August	27	144	1,630	2,303	1,356	4,687	1,210	11,357
September	43	144	1,530	2,251	1,447	4,588	1,204	11,207
October	29	139	1,478	2,088	1,388	4,564	1,244	10,930
November	30	110	1,491	2,016	1,231	4,187	1,131	10,196
December	34	108	1,280	1,977	1,236	4,210	1,319	10,164

Hover over any row in the table above to highlight it, and click a Month cell to generate a plain-language summary below. Click on header for definition.

A crowded Washington Square Park at night in warm weather, with people gathered around the fountain

vs.

An almost empty, snow-covered path in Washington Square Park in winter

2 images from Washington Square Park in NYC in summer vs winter

Testing the Seasonal Crime Hypothesis

February vs. July 2022: change by crime category

Category	February	July	% Increase
Felony Assault	1,725	2,631	52.5%
Murder	36	51	41.7%
Robbery	1,290	1,752	35.8%
Grand Larceny	3,815	4,634	21.5%
Burglary	1,224	1,360	11.1%

Criminologists have documented this "temperature-aggression" pattern for decades. A Rutgers University criminology professor has linked warm weather to more opportunities for conflict to escalate, and a comprehensive research review found a consistent link between higher temperatures and rising violence across dozens of studies. NYC's 2022 numbers follow the same shape: the three violent categories in the table above rose the most between February and July, while the property categories rose the least.

There is one nuance: property crime still rose in summer. Burglary went up 11.1%, just far less sharply than violent crime, which is consistent with modern "opportunity theory" (more people out and about means more chances for theft) alongside temperature-aggression theory.